Viewing archive of Thursday, 12 December 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Dec 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 346 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Dec 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the past
day was a C8 at 12/1239 UTC. The flare occurred shortly after a
long-duration C5 flare which peaked at 12/1143 UTC, while the x-ray
level was still elevated above background. Optical flare reports
were not received for either flare. Region 220 (S12E07) continues to
slowly decay. New Regions 223 (N23E71) and 224 (S16E70) rotated into
view.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
A small M-class flare is still a possibility in Region 220, or
perhaps in one of the new regions on the east limb (223 or 224).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Dec to 15 Dec
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Dec 153 Predicted 13 Dec-15 Dec 155/160/165 90 Day Mean 12 Dec 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Dec 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Dec 005/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec 005/010-005/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Dec to 15 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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