Viewing archive of Sunday, 1 December 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Dec 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Dec 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours.
Today's activity was characterized by occasional C-class subflares.
The largest of these was a C5/Sf at 1528 UTC from Region 208
(N10E49). Region 208 exhibited the brightest plage of the five
spotted groups on the disk, and it has some mixed magnetic
polarities within an overall bipolar structure. Region 207 (S19E20)
continues to be the largest region on the disk but was quiet and
stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low. There is a slight chance, however, for an isolated
M-class event over the next three days from Regions 207 and 208.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels during the
past 24 hours. The high speed solar wind with weakly negative Bz
continues in progress. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes
reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic activity is
expected to persist at unsettled to active levels over the next two
days. A decrease to mostly unsettled levels is expected by the third
day.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Dec to 04 Dec
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Dec 150 Predicted 02 Dec-04 Dec 155/160/165 90 Day Mean 01 Dec 170
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Nov 014/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Dec 014/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec 012/020-012/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec to 04 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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