Viewing archive of Wednesday, 20 November 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Nov 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 198 (S18E15) produced an impulsive M1/Sn flare at 20/1807 UTC. Magnetic complexity exhibits little change from yesterday and areal spot coverage remained unchanged. The trailing most spots are all that remain visible in white-light from Region 191 (S18W81) as it transits the west limb. There was no flare activity recorded from this region today although a rare spray feature was observed in the H-alpha wavelength at 20/1938 UTC overlaying the region. The remaining regions were quiescent during the period. Regions 199 (N27E13) and 200 (N00E71) were newly assigned today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Region 198 has the potential to produce M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. NASA/ACE depicted a modest increase in the solar wind speed beginning at approximately 20/1000 UTC. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field made a sharp southward movement just prior to 20/1600 UTC which brought about the onset of active conditions at all latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active conditions, through the forecast period, as a favorably positioned high speed stream coronal hole becomes geoeffective. Isolated minor storm conditions could occur during the high speed streams influence, especially at high latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Nov to 23 Nov
Class M60%50%50%
Class X10%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Nov 159
  Predicted   21 Nov-23 Nov  155/150/150
  90 Day Mean        20 Nov 174
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov  012/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Nov  012/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov  015/018-015/020-015/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov to 23 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%30%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%40%
Minor storm20%20%25%
Major-severe storm10%15%15%

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