Viewing archive of Friday, 8 November 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Nov 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity was low. Several C-class flares
occurred, mostly in Region 180 (S10W28). This region remains
relatively large and magnetically complex. Other disk regions were
quiet. New Region 191 (S17E74) is rotating into view.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 180 is the most likely source of M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was moderate to high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to become unsettled to active by 10 November due to a
coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Nov to 11 Nov
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Nov 189 Predicted 09 Nov-11 Nov 190/185/185 90 Day Mean 08 Nov 178
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov 010/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Nov 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov 008/010-015/020-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov to 11 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
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