Viewing archive of Wednesday, 30 October 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Oct 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours.
Today's activity was characterized by occasional C-class subflares.
Most of the flare activity was from Region 162 (N25W82). Additional
contributions came from Region 175 (N16E44) which showed steady
growth during the past 24 hours. A 16 degree filament near S02W30
erupted between 29/2224 UTC and 30/0048 UTC. The eruption was
associated with a narrow CME from the southwest limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate during the next three days. The most likely sources for
M-class flares are Regions 162 and 175.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled, except for an
interval of active to minor storm conditions from 0600-1200 UTC. The
greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels during the
past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled during the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Oct to 02 Nov
| Class M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Oct 168 Predicted 31 Oct-02 Nov 170/170/175 90 Day Mean 30 Oct 175
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct 010/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Oct 014/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov 010/012-010/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct to 02 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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