Viewing archive of Saturday, 26 October 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Oct 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 299 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Oct 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity was low. Very little activity of any
type occurred. Region 162 (N26W27) still dominates the disk, but has
been largely quiet since the M1/1f event of 25/1747 UTC. The
remainder of the disk and limbs have been quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. The high
speed solar wind stream continues to cause activity, but less
pronounced than before. The solar wind radial speed is near 550 km/s
(down from 750 km/s), and the disturbance is subsiding as a
consequence.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels for the next 72 hours.
The CME activity on 25 October may cause a slight increase in
activity on 28 October, as only a glancing blow -- if any -- is
anticipated. The solar wind should gradually return to normal
conditions as the interval ends.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Oct to 29 Oct
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Oct 158 Predicted 27 Oct-29 Oct 155/155/155 90 Day Mean 26 Oct 178
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Oct 022/040 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Oct 015/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct 015/015-015/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Oct to 29 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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