Viewing archive of Wednesday, 2 October 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Oct 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Several C-class events
occurred with most from Region 137 (S18E08). This region continues
to grow in areal coverage and spot count. A new region was numbered
today as Region 139 (N14E72).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. A chance for an isolated M-class event exists from
Region 134 (N13W29) and Region 137.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to sever storm conditions.
The disturbance in the solar wind from yesterday continued and
sustained several hours of a southward Bz.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels through the first day of
the forecast period. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for
the remainder of the forecast.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Oct to 05 Oct
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Oct 136 Predicted 03 Oct-05 Oct 140/145/150 90 Day Mean 02 Oct 178
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct 030/060 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Oct 035/045 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct 015/015-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct to 05 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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