Viewing archive of Saturday, 28 September 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Sep 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 271 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Sep 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 134 (N12E24)
produced several minor C-class events. This region continues to
maintain its beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 134 has the potential to produce an isolated
M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled. Active conditions
are possible for September 29 - 30 due to potential effects from a
coronal hole passage.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Sep to 01 Oct
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Sep 149 Predicted 29 Sep-01 Oct 150/145/145 90 Day Mean 28 Sep 179
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Sep 004/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Sep 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Sep-01 Oct 010/015-015/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Sep to 01 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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