Viewing archive of Tuesday, 24 September 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Sep 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 267 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the past
day was a C3/Sf at 24/1602 UTC in Region 119 (S13W76). This region
continues to decay slowly. The rate of growth in Region 132 (N19W28)
has decreased since yesterday. New Region 134 (N11E79) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. A low-level M-class flare is possible in Region 119 or
132.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Sep to 27 Sep
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Sep 158 Predicted 25 Sep-27 Sep 150/145/140 90 Day Mean 24 Sep 178
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep 000/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Sep 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep 005/007-005/007-005/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep to 27 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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