Viewing archive of Monday, 2 September 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Sep 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. The largest event was an optically uncorrelated C2.3 at 02/0248 UTC. An optically uncorrelated C2.0 flare with an associated Type II radio sweep (773 km/s) occurred at 02/0008 UTC. Region 95 (N08E24) has grown in area coverage to 840 millionths and a spot count to 53. However, Region 95 retains it's beta-gamma magnetic classification. Region 97 (N13E08) has also shown significant growth in area and spot count in the last 24-hour. One new region was numbered today, Region 102 (N09E65).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 95 and 97 have M-class potential.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. An isolate active period was observed at 02/1200 UTC due to a 6 hour period of negative Bz.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Effects from a small southern coronal hole may begin on day three of the forcast period.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Sep to 05 Sep
Class M 50%50%40%
Class X 05%05%01%
Proton05%05%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Sep 174
  Predicted    03 Sep-05 Sep  175/170/165
  90 Day Mean        02 Sep 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep  013/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Sep  010/012
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep  010/010-008/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep to 05 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%25%
Minor storm 10%10%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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