Viewing archive of Monday, 2 September 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Sep 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. The largest event
was an optically uncorrelated C2.3 at 02/0248 UTC. An optically
uncorrelated C2.0 flare with an associated Type II radio sweep (773
km/s) occurred at 02/0008 UTC. Region 95 (N08E24) has grown in area
coverage to 840 millionths and a spot count to 53. However, Region
95 retains it's beta-gamma magnetic classification. Region 97
(N13E08) has also shown significant growth in area and spot count in
the last 24-hour. One new region was numbered today, Region 102
(N09E65).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 95 and 97 have M-class potential.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. An isolate
active period was observed at 02/1200 UTC due to a 6 hour period of
negative Bz.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Effects from a small southern
coronal hole may begin on day three of the forcast period.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Sep to 05 Sep
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Sep 174 Predicted 03 Sep-05 Sep 175/170/165 90 Day Mean 02 Sep 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep 013/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Sep 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep 010/010-008/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep to 05 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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