Viewing archive of Tuesday, 6 August 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Aug 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity was moderate during the past 24 hours.
Newly assigned Region 63 (N17E73) produced an M1 event at 05/2122
UTC. The group also produced a C7/1n at 1259 UTC. Region 57 (S08W66)
continues to be the largest group on the disk and produced a C8/1f
at 0144 UTC and a C7/Sf at 1527 UTC. The group exhibited frequent
surging and brightenings throughout the day, but the spots appear to
be simplifying somewhat. Region 61 (N09E41) showed some growth today
and produced a couple low-level C-class events. A filament near
S42W40 erupted today: the material started to rise in EIT195 images
around 1600 UTC and was visible as a CME in LASCO C2 at 1825 UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate for the next three days. The most likely sources for
flare activity are Regions 57, 61, and 63.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to slightly active for the next two days as
a coronal hole rotates into a favorable position. Conditions should
subside to mostly unsettled by the third day.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Aug to 09 Aug
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Aug 145 Predicted 07 Aug-09 Aug 140/140/135 90 Day Mean 06 Aug 166
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Aug 004/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Aug 006/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug 012/015-015/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Aug to 09 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
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