Viewing archive of Wednesday, 31 July 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jul 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 212 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jul 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 39
(S15W44) produced an M1/Sb flare at 31/0153 UTC with associated
discrete frequency radio burst. This region continues its gradual
decay but maintains a delta configuration in the leader spot.
Region 50 (S08W32) has shown growth in area and spot count while
maintaining its beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 44
(S21W49) appears to have been relatively stable in the last 24
hours. New Region 56 (N04E49) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. M-class activity is expected from Region 39, Region 44 or
Region 50. An isolated X-class event is possible from Region 39.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. A weak shock
was detected at the L1 position by the NASA/ACE spacecraft at
approximately 31/1100 UTC. The Bz component of the IMF was
northward resulting in little geomagnetic activity.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active conditions are
possible on days one and two of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Aug to 03 Aug
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Jul 209 Predicted 01 Aug-03 Aug 205/200/200 90 Day Mean 31 Jul 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jul 005/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jul 009/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Aug-03 Aug 012/015-015/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Aug to 03 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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