Viewing archive of Tuesday, 9 July 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jul 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Two M-class events (an M2.3 at 08/2320 UTC, and an M1.0 at 09/0905 UTC) along with a C8.6 event (at 09/0413 UTC) all occurred from an apparent emergent source near the northwest limb. Associated activity in this area was evident in SOHO/EIT imagery and in H-alpha imagery from the IPS Culgoora observatory. Other activity included an unusual tenflare (250 sfu at 09/1858 UTC) that occurred without notable x-ray enhancement. However, a possible source was evident in an impressive backside full-halo CME, seen in SOHO/LASCO imagery at 09/1931 UTC. New Region 30 (N18E74) rotated into view and was numbered today. This large, bipolar region was the likely source of yesterday's M-class event.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate for the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Isolated active periods occurred in apparent response to gradually increasing solar wind speed and periods of southward IMF.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled for the next three days. Isolated active conditions may occur late in the period in response to an expected onset of high speed stream effects from a coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jul to 12 Jul
Class M35%35%35%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Jul 136
  Predicted   10 Jul-12 Jul  135/140/135
  90 Day Mean        09 Jul 166
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul  006/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Jul  013/014
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul  010/010-008/008-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul to 12 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%15%
Minor storm05%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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