Viewing archive of Wednesday, 19 June 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jun 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jun 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. A C5 event occurred at 19/1015 UTC. The LASCO/EIT imagery suggest the source of the event to be Region 9991 (S22W85).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active conditions. Minor storm conditions were observed at high latitudes. This activity is attributed to a well positioned coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active conditions are possible for June 20 with the coronal hole passage.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jun to 22 Jun
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Jun 146
  Predicted   20 Jun-22 Jun  150/150/155
  90 Day Mean        19 Jun 177
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jun  008/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Jun  012/016
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun  015/018-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jun to 22 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%15%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
PLAIN This message is for users of the NOAA/SEC Space Weather Operations sunspot region numbers. As you may have noticed, region number 10000 was assigned on June 14. Space Weather operations is going through the sequence of Region numbers as 9998, 9999, 0000, 0001, and so on. SEC's product text discussions of the active regions will ignore the leading zeroes (for example, we will say 'Region number 5' rather than Region number '0005'). However, the Geoalert product, the Region Report product, as well as the USAF and IUWDS data exchange codes will preserve the 4 digit format. The necessity of using four digits is for operational purposes only. For historical purposes all regions beyond Region 9999 will be understood to be in a series of region numbers 10000 and higher.

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