Viewing archive of Wednesday, 29 May 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 May 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 149 Issued at 2200Z on 29 May 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. The largest event
was an optically uncorrelated long duration C8 flare at 29/0246 UTC.
Region 9972 (S21E44) produced a C8/Sf at 29/0519 UTC and has shown
slight growth. Region 9961 (S21W59) has simplified in magnetic
complexity while Region 9963 (N16W43) has remained relatively
unchanged since yesterday. Region 9973 (S16E61) has developed a
beta-gamma magnetic configuration and a 960 millionths area
coverage. Two new regions were numbered today: Region 9974
(N18E58) and Region 9975 (N23E63).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9963 has the potential for low level M-class
activity. Region 9973 has the potential for low level M-class
activity and a slight chance of producing a major event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 30 May to 01 Jun
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 May 185 Predicted 30 May-01 Jun 185/190/190 90 Day Mean 29 May 183
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 May 008/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 May 008/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 May-01 Jun 008/015-008/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 May to 01 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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