Viewing archive of Tuesday, 14 May 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 May 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. The largest event
was an optically uncorrelated C4.2 flare at 14/1303 UTC. Region 9945
(S04W26) has shown some modest increase in magnetic complexity and
now has a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. An optically
uncorrelated C2 flare occurred at 13/2056 UTC with an associated
Type II radio sweep. SOHO/LASCO imagery indicate a possible source
on the SW limb. An uncorrelated Type II radio sweep occurred at
14/0738 UTC as well as a Type IV radio sweep at 14/0747 UTC.
SOHO/LASCO EIT imagery indicates an event beyond the SW limb at
14/0736 UTC as a probable source.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9945 and Region 9948 have the potential for low
level M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. Minor
storm conditions occurred from 03 - 09 UTC. Active to unsettled
conditions occurred for the remainder of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active conditions are
possible on day one of the forecast period, particularly at higher
latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 15 May to 17 May
| Class M | 40% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 May 161 Predicted 15 May-17 May 165/165/160 90 Day Mean 14 May 186
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 May 009/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 May 025/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May 015/020-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May to 17 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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