Viewing archive of Tuesday, 7 May 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 May 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 9937
(S09E15) produced an M1.4 flare at 07/0346 UTC. Associated with
this flare was a Type IV radio burst and a full halo CME. Region
9937 is now appears to be in gradual decay. Region 9934 (S17W06)
has not shown any significant changes in the last 24 hours. Two new
regions were numbered today: Region 9944 (N08E35) and Region 9945
(S05E66).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9934 has a slight chance of producing M-class
events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. The CME from the M1 event at
07/0346 UTC is expected to arrive on day two of the forecast period.
A chance active conditions, particularly at higher latitudes, are
possible from this CME.
III. Event Probabilities 08 May to 10 May
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 May 187 Predicted 08 May-10 May 195/200/200 90 Day Mean 07 May 188
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 May 006/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 May 008/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May 005/006-012/012-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May to 10 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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