Viewing archive of Sunday, 5 May 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 May 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9934 (S17E21)
produced a C4/Sf flare at 05/0808 UTC. This region has shown some
growth in area, extent and spot count in the last 24 hours. The
delta magnetic configuration in the leader spot shows signs of
simplifying but the region maintains a beta-gamma-delta magnetic
classification. Region 9937 (S09E42) has shown rapid growth over
the last 24 hours with area coverage more than doubling to 210
millionths and spot count is at 10. Region 9929 (N22W53) continues
gradual growth. Three new regions were numbered today: Region 9941
(S22E09), Region 9942 (N22E34), and Region 9943 (S11E63).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9934 has the potential for M-class events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Unsettled conditions are
expected due to the effects of a weak CME shock due to arrive early
on day one of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 06 May to 08 May
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 May 180 Predicted 06 May-08 May 190/200/205 90 Day Mean 05 May 188
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 May 004/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 May 006/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May 010/010-008/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May to 08 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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