Viewing archive of Tuesday, 30 April 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Apr 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 120 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Apr 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. An M1 flare occurred at 30/0822 UTC. The source of this event seems to be just beyond the southeast limb. Several C-class flares also occurred during the past 24 hours. Sources included disk Regions 9914 (N05W80), 9919 (N14W28), and probably one or more unnumbered east limb regions. New Region 9929 (N22E16) emerged on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. A general trend of increased activity is expected as the east limb regions rotate onto the disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 01 May to 03 May
Class M 30%40%50%
Class X 01%01%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Apr 153
  Predicted    01 May-03 May  155/160/165
  90 Day Mean        30 Apr 192
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr  006/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Apr  008/008
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May  005/006-008/012-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May to 03 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm 10%10%10%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%

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