Viewing archive of Wednesday, 3 April 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Apr 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 093 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Apr 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity remained at low levels. Several weak C-class events occurred throughout the period. Most flare activity was optically uncorrelated, however Regions 9887 (N02W02) and 9888 (S13E07) were both observed to produce C1/Sf events. New Region 9893 (N18E78) rotated into view and was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate for the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. A single active period was observed during 03/0300-0600 UTC, as coronal hole effects diminished, and quiet to unsettled conditions predominated thereafter. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit showed moderate enhancement today, but remained below event threshold.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Moderate to high flux of greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit is possible for the duration of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Apr to 06 Apr
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Apr 209
  Predicted   04 Apr-06 Apr  208/208/205
  90 Day Mean        03 Apr 203
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Apr  010/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Apr  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr  008/010-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Apr to 06 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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