Viewing archive of Thursday, 25 April 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Apr 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 115 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Apr 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 9912 (N11W65)
produced an impulsive M1/1f flare at 24/2156 UTC associated with
minor radio emission. This region continued to slowly decay. Region
9924 (S15W20), which emerged rapidly yesterday, began to gradually
decay. Minor growth was observed in Region 9915 (N12E01). The
remaining regions were unremarkable including newly numbered Region
9925 (S14W36).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with an outside chance for an isolated low-level M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels during most of the
period. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 21/0225
UTC persisted, but just barely above event threshold (the maximum
for this event was 2520 pfu at 21/2320 UTC).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 26 April. Unsettled
to active levels are expected during 27 - 28 April due to recurrent
coronal hole effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is
expected to end early on 26 April.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Apr to 28 Apr
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Apr 167 Predicted 26 Apr-28 Apr 170/170/175 90 Day Mean 25 Apr 197
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Apr 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Apr 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Apr-28 Apr 012/012-015/015-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Apr to 28 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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