Viewing archive of Wednesday, 24 April 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Apr 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 114 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Apr 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity remained at low levels with occasional C-class flares. The largest flare was a C4/1n at 24/1605 UTC from Region 9912 (N09W51). Region 9912 showed gradual decay, mostly in its trailer spots. Region 9913 (S16W44) produced occasional subflares, a few of which reached C-class. It showed minor growth as well as a minor mix of polarities. Region 9914 (N04E04) showed gradual growth, but remained simply-structured. New Region 9924 (S17W07) emerged rapidly and produced isolated subflares. It was a relatively small D- type spot group with minor polarity mixing throughout. New Region 9923 (S03W31) was also numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Isolated low-level M-class flares are possible during the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 21/0225 UTC continued. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was around 24.0 PFU and gradually decreasing as the period ended.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during 25 - 26 April increasing to unsettled to active levels on 27 April due to recurrent coronal hole effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end early in the period.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Apr to 27 Apr
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton50%05%05%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Apr 177
  Predicted   25 Apr-27 Apr  180/180/185
  90 Day Mean        24 Apr 198
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Apr  021/022
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Apr  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Apr-27 Apr  008/010-012/012-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Apr to 27 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%25%35%
Minor storm10%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%30%40%
Minor storm10%15%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

All times in UTC

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