Viewing archive of Monday, 22 April 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Apr 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 112 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to low levels. Region 9906 (S14W103), now well beyond the west limb, produced a C7 X-ray flare at 22/0019 UTC associated with a bright surge and an eruptive prominence. Region 9912 (N10W25) produced a C2/Sf flare at 22/1210 UTC associated with a Type II radio sweep (estimated velocity 804 km/sec). Region 9912 was in a gradual growth phase. A weak magnetic delta configuration may have developed within its trailer spots. New Region 9917 (S30E45) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. There's a chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 9912.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Active levels occurred during 22/0300 - 0600 UTC. The greater than 100 MeV proton event that began at 21/0155 UTC reached a peak of 22.9 pfu at 21/1025 UTC and was in progress as the period ended. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 21/0225 UTC reached a peak of 2520 pfu at 21/2320 UTC and was in progress as the period ended. Peak polar cap absorption associated with the proton event was estimated to be 16 dB (daytime) and 3.9 dB (nighttime).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to increase to active to minor storm levels on 23 April in response to yesterday's X1/partial-halo CME event. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 24 April as the disturbance winds down. Unsettled conditions are expected on the final day. The greater than 100 MeV proton event is expected to end early on 23 April. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end on 24 April.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton99%99%20%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Apr 170
  Predicted   23 Apr-25 Apr  170/175/175
  90 Day Mean        22 Apr 199
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr  004/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Apr  013/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr  025/030-015/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%40%35%
Minor storm20%10%05%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%50%40%
Minor storm30%20%10%
Major-severe storm15%10%01%

All times in UTC

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