Viewing archive of Monday, 8 April 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Apr 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 098 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Apr 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9901 (N19E24)
produced a C6/Sf flare at 08/0150 UTC and has doubled it's penumbral
coverage since yesterday. A C6 x-ray flare which appears to have
originated in Region 9899 (N18E46) was the largest flare of the
period, occurring at 08/2046 UTC. This region has shown slow but
steady growth today, in both magnetic complexity and penumbral
coverage. Multiple minor C-class were observed today with many
going optically uncorrelated. Region 9893 (N18E13) was quiescent
today producing no optically correlated flares although this region
has developed a weak delta magnetic spot in the trailing polarity of
the group. New Region 9903 (N19E74) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The greater than
10 MeV electron flux was slightly elevated throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be at predominantly quiet with occasional unsettled
conditions throughout the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Apr to 11 Apr
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Apr 206 Predicted 09 Apr-11 Apr 200/195/185 90 Day Mean 08 Apr 203
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Apr 008/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Apr 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Apr-11 Apr 005/005-004/008-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Apr to 11 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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