Viewing archive of Wednesday, 3 April 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Apr 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 093 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Apr 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity remained at low levels. Several weak
C-class events occurred throughout the period. Most flare activity
was optically uncorrelated, however Regions 9887 (N02W02) and 9888
(S13E07) were both observed to produce C1/Sf events. New Region
9893 (N18E78) rotated into view and was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate for the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. A single active period
was observed during 03/0300-0600 UTC, as coronal hole effects
diminished, and quiet to unsettled conditions predominated
thereafter. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit showed moderate enhancement today, but remained below event
threshold.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Moderate to high flux of greater
than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit is possible for the
duration of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Apr to 06 Apr
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Apr 209 Predicted 04 Apr-06 Apr 208/208/205 90 Day Mean 03 Apr 203
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Apr 010/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Apr 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr 008/010-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Apr to 06 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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