Viewing archive of Saturday, 23 March 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Mar 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 082 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Mar 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to low levels. Frequent C-class flares occurred. Region 9876 (S16E30) was the most active area on the disk and produced occasional C-class subflares. It grew during the period with increased area and magnetic complexity, particularly in its trailer spots. Region 9878 (N10E43) produced a long-duration C2/Sf flare at 23/0330 UTC with no significant radio emission. This region grew at a gradual pace with a minor increase in area and spot count. Region 9871 (S18W60) produced an isolated subflare as it continued to gradually decay. New Region 9883 (N06E67) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. There is a fair chance for an M-class flare from Region 9876. Major flare potential may increase in this region if its current rate of growth continues.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. Field activity increased to unsettled to active levels following a sudden impulse at 23/1137 UTC (16 nT, as measured by the Boulder USGS magnetometer). The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 22/2020 UTC continued. The preliminary maximum for this event was 16.2 pfu at 23/1320 UT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during most of the period. However, brief active conditions may occur during 25 - 26 March. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end early in the period.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Mar to 26 Mar
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton50%01%01%
PCAFYellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Mar 170
  Predicted   24 Mar-26 Mar  170/165/165
  90 Day Mean        23 Mar 211
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Mar  007/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Mar  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar  010/012-010/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar to 26 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

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