Viewing archive of Friday, 15 March 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Mar 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 074 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Only a few C-class subflares occurred. Region 9866 (S09W06) has decayed somewhat since yesterday but retains the delta magnetic configuration in the trailer sunspots. Region 9871 (S20E44) has changed little. New Region 9872 (S31E09) emerged on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. M-class activity, possibly including a major flare, remains possible in Region 9866.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Mar to 18 Mar
Class M60%50%50%
Class X10%05%05%
Proton05%01%01%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Mar 176
  Predicted   16 Mar-18 Mar  175/175/170
  90 Day Mean        15 Mar 215
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar  002/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Mar  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar  005/005-008/008-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar to 18 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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