Viewing archive of Friday, 15 March 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Mar 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 074 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity was low. Only a few C-class subflares
occurred. Region 9866 (S09W06) has decayed somewhat since yesterday
but retains the delta magnetic configuration in the trailer
sunspots. Region 9871 (S20E44) has changed little. New Region 9872
(S31E09) emerged on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. M-class activity, possibly including a major flare,
remains possible in Region 9866.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Mar to 18 Mar
| Class M | 60% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Mar 176 Predicted 16 Mar-18 Mar 175/175/170 90 Day Mean 15 Mar 215
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Mar 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar 005/005-008/008-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar to 18 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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