Viewing archive of Thursday, 14 March 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Mar 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 073 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 9866 (S10E07) produced an M5/2b flare at 14/0150 UTC. This Region also produced a number of subflares. It remains the largest sunspot group on the disk and retains its delta magnetic configuration in the trailer portion. Region 9871 (S20E58) produced an M1/Sf flare at 13/2335 UTC. This area also produced C-class activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Additional M-class flares are expected in Regions 9866 and 9871. Another major flare in 9866 is also possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Mar to 17 Mar
Class M 60%60%60%
Class X 10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Mar 181
  Predicted    15 Mar-17 Mar  185/190/195
  90 Day Mean        14 Mar 216
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar  006/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Mar  004/004
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar  008/008-008/006-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar to 17 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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