Viewing archive of Sunday, 10 March 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Mar 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 069 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Mar 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. The largest
event was an M1.3/1f at 09/2210 UTC from Region 9866 (S09E61). A
Type IV radio sweep and CME were associated with the flare but
SOHO/LASCO imagery indicates no earth directed component. Region
9866 has grown in spot count to 19 and area coverage to 840
millionths. There are signs that a magnetic delta configuration
maybe developing in the larger trailing spot. At 10/1706 UTC a
partial halo CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery. Analysis of the
event indicates a backside origin.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate with a chance of isolated M-class activity from Region
9866. Due to the developing size and magnetic complexity of this
region there is a slight chance of a major event or proton event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Active
conditions were observed at higher latitudes most likely due to a
prolonged period of southward Bz from 10/0900 to 10/1300 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated periods of
active conditions are possible on day two and three of the forecast
period.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Mar to 13 Mar
| Class M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Mar 179 Predicted 11 Mar-13 Mar 185/190/195 90 Day Mean 10 Mar 217
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Mar 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Mar 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar 005/005-008/010-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Mar to 13 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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