Viewing archive of Tuesday, 15 January 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jan 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 015 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate. Region 9775 (S06W69) was most active, producing an M1/Sf event at 14/2246 UTC, and several other subfaint C-class flares during the period. This region is exhibiting some growth in magnetic complexity and areal coverage as it approaches the west limb. Other sources of weak C-class flare activity during the period included Regions 9782 (N06E20) and 9773 (N16W80).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. Particle fluxes for both >2MeV electrons and >10MeV protons reached event levels during the period. >2MeV electrons briefly exceeded 1000 pfu at geosynchronous orbit near local noon, as measured on GOES-8, during 15/1405-1615 UTC. A proton event for >10MeV flux reached event threshold of 10 pfu at 15/1435 UTC, and remains in progress with a current flux of about 12 pfu. The slow enhancement in proton flux is likely from the west limb CME event of 14 January, with the delay in enhancement due to the intervening effects of a coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be mainly quiet with some isolated unsettled periods. The >10MeV proton event is expected to end during the first day of the period.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jan to 18 Jan
Class M75%75%75%
Class X20%15%15%
Proton90%30%15%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Jan 218
  Predicted   16 Jan-18 Jan  220/215/220
  90 Day Mean        15 Jan 224
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan  007/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Jan  006/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan  007/010-010/010-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan to 18 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%20%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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