Viewing archive of Saturday, 5 January 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jan 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 005 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 9773
(N13E52) produced an M1.9/1f flare at 05/1840 UTC and a number of
minor C-class flares. Region 9767 (S22W03) produced only C-class
flares and has remained mostly unchanged since yesterday,
maintaining a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9773 and Region 9767 have the potential for
M-class events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet with one period at unsettled
conditions. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that started on
30/0245 UTC has ended at 04/2355 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. A weak shock from the C5/1f
event on 03/0220 UTC is expected to arrive midday on day one of the
period and could produce slight disturbances.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jan to 08 Jan
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jan 212 Predicted 06 Jan-08 Jan 210/210/205 90 Day Mean 05 Jan 221
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jan 004/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan 008/012-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan to 08 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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