Viewing archive of Wednesday, 2 January 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jan 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 002 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 9754 (S07W68) generated the largest flare of the day, producing an M2/1n flare at 02/1252 UTC. This region grew in magnetic complexity during the period and exhibits a much tighter spot cluster than was seen yesterday in white light. Regions 9764 (N14W50) and 9751 (N04W89) also contributed to today's activity producing small C-class flares. Region 9767 (S23E36) has been relatively quiescent through the period producing a lone optical Sf flare. A decrease in area was seen in spot coverage during the period, although magnetic structure remained unchanged in Region 9767. New Regions 9769 (S19W33), 9770 (N08W29), and 9771 (S20E17) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 30/0245 UTC reached a maximum flux of 108 pfu at 31/1620 UTC. This event has been on a very slow decrease since max and is at 33 pfu at the time of this writing.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end late on day two of the forecast.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Jan to 05 Jan
Class M75%75%75%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton99%99%10%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Jan 231
  Predicted   03 Jan-05 Jan  230/230/225
  90 Day Mean        02 Jan 220
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan  004/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Jan  005/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan  005/008-006/008-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan to 05 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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