Viewing archive of Thursday, 6 December 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Dec 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 9727 (S21E29) produced an M1/2f event at 06/0826 UTC. This region continues to develop its magnetic complexity and retained a delta configuration. Region 9720 (S23W29) produced an C7/1f event at 06/1907 UTC. The NOAA/SXI test imagery and NOAA/GOES x-ray data indicate a possible coronal mass ejection associated with this event. The observed Penticton 10.7 cm flux of 247 sfu is possibly flare enhanced and the morning flux of 231 sfu may be more representative. New Region 9731 (N24E36) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9718 (S07W38) and 9727 are both capable of producing an isolated major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for 07 - 08 December. Unsettled to active conditions are possible on 09 December due to the event today from Region 9720 at 06/1907 UTC.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Dec to 09 Dec
Class M80%80%80%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Dec 247
  Predicted   07 Dec-09 Dec  225/225/220
  90 Day Mean        06 Dec 220
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec  007/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Dec  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec  007/008-007/008-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec to 09 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%25%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%30%
Minor storm10%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

All times in UTC

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