Viewing archive of Monday, 24 December 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Dec 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 358 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Dec 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. There were three
low-level M-class flares during the past day, an M1/Sf at 23/2336
UTC in Region 9748 (S10W21), an M1/1n at 24/0032 UTC in Region 9754
(S08E48), and an optically uncorrelated M3 at 24/1400 UTC. Limited
real-time, ground-based and satellite data hampered analysis all
day. Region 9742 (N11W44) still appears to be the largest sunspot
group on the disk but seems to be a stacked bipolar region of fairly
simple magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at moderate levels. M-class flares are possible from Regions 9742,
9748, and 9754.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels under
the influence of a high-speed solar wind stream. The culprit coronal
hole is presumed to be the one in the southwest quadrant.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours becoming
quiet to unsettled for the remainder of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Dec to 27 Dec
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Dec 275 Predicted 25 Dec-27 Dec 280/275/270 90 Day Mean 24 Dec 218
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Dec 005/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Dec 018/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec 015/015-010/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Dec to 27 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 50% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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