Viewing archive of Saturday, 8 December 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Dec 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Dec 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate during the past 24 hours. Newly assigned Region 9733 (N14E67) produced an M3 flare at 0634 UTC. The event was associated with a CME: coronagraph observations clearly show this CME is not Earth directed. The region produced additional C-class level events. Region 9718 (S06W63) continues to be the largest group on the disk but was relatively quiet and is showing slight decay. Region 9727 (S22E03) continues to be magnetically complex with a beta-gamma-delta, but was also stable and appears to be gradually decaying.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Regions 9733 and 9727 are expected to dominate the activity, although Region 9718 could possibly contribute an energetic event as well.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Dec to 11 Dec
Class M75%75%75%
Class X15%15%15%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Dec 221
  Predicted   09 Dec-11 Dec  215/210/205
  90 Day Mean        08 Dec 219
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Dec  007/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Dec  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec  010/008-012/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec to 11 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm10%15%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm10%15%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%

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