Viewing archive of Wednesday, 5 December 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Dec 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Only low level C-class flares have occurred through the period. There are fourteen numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk with Region 9718 (S07W24) being the largest at approximately 660 millionths and 34 spots. Region 9727 (S21E42) has grown in area and spot count and is currently a Dko beta-gamma-delta group with 14 spots. Two new regions were numbered today as Regions 9729 (N24E04) and 9730 (S13E49).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9718 is still capable of producing an isolated major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Dec to 08 Dec
Class M70%70%70%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Dec 237
  Predicted   06 Dec-08 Dec  225/225/220
  90 Day Mean        05 Dec 219
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Dec  008/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec  007/008-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec to 08 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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