Viewing archive of Saturday, 1 December 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Dec 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Dec 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity was high, due to the occurrence of several M-class events. The largest was an east limb long duration M4.8 enhancement, peaking at 01/1555 UTC. The presumed source is old Region 9690 (S17, L=025), which is expected to re-emerge on the east limb on 02 December. Other activity included numerous flares from Region 9714 (S10W84), some of which were accompanied by weak M-class enhancements, and an impulsive M2/2n flare from Region 9718 (S07E30). Three new regions were numbered today: 9722 (S16W19), 9723 (S09E45), and 9724 (N09E74). The latter produced an M1/Sf event at 01/1744 UTC. None of today's activity appeared to produce any earth-directed CME's, and no CME-related radio sweeps were observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high for the next three days. Regions 9714, 9715 (N05W23), 9718, and emergent regions on the east limb all appear capable of isolated major flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field may become active, with isolated minor storm conditions possible, within the next 24 hours, as shock passages from CME activity of 28-29 November are anticipated. Activity is expected to be predominantly unsettled thereafter, with some influence of a recurrent coronal hole possible late in the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Dec to 04 Dec
Class M80%80%80%
Class X25%25%25%
Proton15%20%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Dec 221
  Predicted   02 Dec-04 Dec  225/220/220
  90 Day Mean        01 Dec 218
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Nov  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Dec  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec  020/030-012/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec to 04 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%20%20%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%25%25%
Minor storm25%15%15%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%

All times in UTC

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