Viewing archive of Thursday, 22 November 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Nov 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 326 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Nov 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate. The largest, and most notable, event of the period was a M3/2n flare from Region 9698 (S25W68) at 22/2036 UTC. An associated 630 sfu tenflare and Type-II radio sweep (estimated velocity 890 km/s) were also observed, and an energetic proton flux enhancement was in progress, but below threshold, at the end of the period. This event also produced a greatly enhanced 10cm noon flux observation of 283 sfu, so the morning value of 190 sfu was substituted to better represent the background flux for the period. The source region for this event (Region 9698) is particularly remarkable, after having decayed to its present alpha magnetic configuration (a single Hsx spot, with 110 millionths areal coverage), following ten days on the visible disk without any other optical or x-ray activity observed. Region 9704 (S18W38) also produced an M-class event, a M1/1f flare at 22/1708 UTC. Two new regions were numbered today: 9713 (N08E03) and 9714 (S11E36).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to persist at low to moderate levels for the next three days. Region 9704 is expected to remain a principle source of flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. An energetic proton flux enhancement was in progress, but below threshold, at the end of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled through November 23, with an increase to active and isolated minor storm conditions expected for November 24 and 25, due to yesterday's and today's CME activity. An energetic proton event is expected to develop within the next few hours due to the flare event described in section 1A above.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Nov to 25 Nov
Class M35%35%35%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Nov 190
  Predicted   23 Nov-25 Nov  175/170/170
  90 Day Mean        22 Nov 218
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Nov  002/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Nov  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov  010/010-018/020-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov to 25 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%25%30%
Minor storm05%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%35%35%
Minor storm05%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%10%10%

All times in UTC

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