Viewing archive of Monday, 19 November 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Nov 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 9704 (S18E02) produced a
number of C-class subflares, the largest being a C4/Sf at 19/0701
UTC. This Region remains the most magnetically complex presently on
the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9704 remains capable of M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. A shock was
observed at the NASA ACE spacecraft at about 19/1735 UTC, followed
by a sudden impulse at ground magnetometers (10 nT at Boulder) at
about 19/1815 UTC. This shock is believed to be associated with a
CME which occurred on 17 November. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux at geosynchronous orbit exceeded the 10 pfu event threshold at
19/1230 UTC. This event remains in progress with a maximum flux so
far of 20 pfu at 19/2055 UTC. This event is believed to also be
associated with the M2/1n/CME event on 17 November.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours becoming
quiet to unsettled by the end of the three day forecast period. The
greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end within the next
48 hours.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Nov to 22 Nov
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 95% | 50% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Nov 191 Predicted 20 Nov-22 Nov 190/185/180 90 Day Mean 19 Nov 218
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov 008/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Nov 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov 015/015-010/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov to 22 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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