Viewing archive of Monday, 12 November 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Nov 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels due to a single
M-class event. Region 9692 (N07W78) produced an M1/1b flare at
12/0757 UTC. Region 9690 (S18W22) remains the largest and most
complex sunspot group (1180 millionths with a beta-gamma-delta
magnetic classification). Although this region only produced
isolated C-class events during the period, further M-class and
possibly X-class events are possible. Two new regions were numbered:
9698 (S08W67) and 9699 (S24E64).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Region 9690 remains capable of producing a
major flare during the period. Region 9692 retains a slight chance
of producing a major flare. Region 9692 will rotate off the visible
disk in the next day. Old Region 9672 (S18, L=268) is due to return
on 13 November. This region produced several M and X-class events
during its last rotation.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Nov to 15 Nov
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 75% |
| Class X | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Nov 227 Predicted 13 Nov-15 Nov 230/235/235 90 Day Mean 12 Nov 214
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov to 15 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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