Viewing archive of Friday, 9 November 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Nov 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Activity remained at high levels due to an abundance of M-class flares (none of which reached major flare criteria). Region 9690 (S18E16) was responsible for most of the M-class flares including the largest of the day: an M3/1n flare at 09/0856 UTC associated with minor centimetric radio bursts. This region remained the largest and most complex on the disk with an area exceeding 1400 millions of the visible disk. It continued to grow in area and complexity with multiple magnetic delta configurations and strong magnetic field gradients. Region 9687 (S20W31) produced a long-duration M1/Sf flare at 09/1841 UTC associated with weak Type II and IV radio sweeps and minor centimetric radio bursts. This region remained moderate in size and magnetic complexity with some polarity mixing evident in its leader spots, but showed no significant changes. Region 9692 (N06W39) showed significant growth during the period, but produced no flares. It remained simply-structured. Region 9684 (N06W95) rotated out of view. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. M-class flares are expected. Region 9690 may produce a major flare during the period. Region 9687 also provides a slight chance for an isolated major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton event continued as it hovered near event threshold during the latter half of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Quiet to unsettled levels are expected during most of the period. However, active conditions will be possible during the first two days. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end on 10 November. There will be a slight chance for another proton flare during the period.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Nov to 12 Nov
Class M90%90%90%
Class X30%30%30%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Nov 271
  Predicted   10 Nov-12 Nov  260/265/270
  90 Day Mean        09 Nov 211
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov  003/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Nov  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov  012/015-015/015-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov to 12 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%30%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%

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