Viewing archive of Friday, 26 October 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Oct 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 299 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Oct 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 9678
(N11E07) was quite active producing six C-class flares and one M2/Sn
flare at 26/1435 UTC. Radio sweeps at numerous discrete frequencies
were reported with the M2/Sn flare. This region continued rapid
growth in area coverage to 680 millionths, spot count to 48, and
remains a magnetically complex beta-gamma-delta configuration.
Region 9672 (S18W41) was also active producing four C-class and one
minor M-class flares. As Region 9682 (N11E59) rotates onto the disc
it has developed into a major region with good potential for
activity. New Region 9683 (N28E30) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar Activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. There is also a chance of an isolated major
flare from Regions 9672, 9678, and 9682. Region 9672 still
maintains a complex magnetic configuration and it has not diminished
in size or complexity. Continued rapid growth and complexity of
Region 9678 makes this region a potential source for a major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. A coronal hole / high
speed stream has begun to rotate into a geoeffective position.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to major storm levels. The shock arrival
from the X1/2b CME on 25/1502 UTC is expected to arrive late on day
one or early on day two of the period. Shock arrival is expected to
produce unsettled to minor storm level activity for day one and two
of the period. Major storm levels are possible particularly at the
higher latitudes. Coronal hole / high speed stream may keep
activity at unsettled levels on day three.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Oct to 29 Oct
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Oct 237 Predicted 27 Oct-29 Oct 230/225/220 90 Day Mean 26 Oct 197
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Oct 005/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Oct 006/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct 020/020-030/030-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Oct to 29 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 45% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
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