Viewing archive of Tuesday, 16 October 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Oct 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9661 (N16E04)
produced several C-class flares, the largest being a C6/Sf at
16/1926 UTC. This region has continued to grow in areal coverage
and spot count, and also has exhibited greater magnetic complexity
over the last 24 hours. Other minor C-class flares also occurred
throughout the period. A filament centered near S35W34 disappeared
at about 15/2100 UTC, however no associated CME activity was
apparent in available SOHO/LASCO imagery. New Region 9670 (S16E67)
was numbered today, indicating the expected return of old Region
9628/9632 complex. Limb proximity prevents full analysis of the new
region's characteristics.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 9661 continues to show the potential
to produce an isolated major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days, barring
the occurrence of an earth directed CME.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Oct to 19 Oct
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Oct 207 Predicted 17 Oct-19 Oct 215/215/220 90 Day Mean 16 Oct 186
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct 008/008-008/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct to 19 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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