Viewing archive of Saturday, 6 October 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Oct 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity was moderate due to a single M-class
event during the period. An optically uncorrelated M2 flare occurred
at 06/0525 UTC. This event also produced a Coronal Mass Ejection
(CME) off of the sun's west limb as seen in LASCO imagery. This CME
should not be geoeffective. Region 9641 (S13W48) produced a C3/1f
flare at 05/2120 UTC. This event also produced a south-west oriented
CME. Again, this CME should not be geoeffective. The only other
activity of note during the period was a C3/1f flare from Region
9648 (S07E22).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low with an isolated chance of an M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at
elevated levels but below the proton event threshold of 10 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled conditions. Active
conditions are possible on the third day due to a recurrent coronal
hole and its resulting high stream impacting earth.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Oct to 09 Oct
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Oct 180 Predicted 07 Oct-09 Oct 170/170/175 90 Day Mean 06 Oct 181
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct 010/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Oct 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct 008/012-008/012-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct to 09 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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