Viewing archive of Tuesday, 28 August 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Aug 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 240 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Aug 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate. There were three M-class events observed during the period. Region 9591 (S19W06) produced an M1/1N at 28/0012 UTC. Region 9601 (N12E73) produced an M1/Sf at 28/0840 UTC and an M1/Sn at 28/1611 UTC with an associated Type II and Type IV radio sweep. Region 9591 remains the largest region on the disk and maintains its Fki beta-gamma-delta configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. A major flare is possible from Region 9591.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Aug to 31 Aug
Class M 80%80%80%
Class X 20%20%20%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Aug 199
  Predicted    29 Aug-31 Aug  205/205/210
  90 Day Mean        28 Aug 154
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Aug  014/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Aug  010/015
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 29 Aug-31 Aug  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Aug to 31 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm 10%10%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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