Viewing archive of Tuesday, 28 August 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Aug 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 240 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Aug 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. There were three
M-class events observed during the period. Region 9591 (S19W06)
produced an M1/1N at 28/0012 UTC. Region 9601 (N12E73) produced an
M1/Sf at 28/0840 UTC and an M1/Sn at 28/1611 UTC with an associated
Type II and Type IV radio sweep. Region 9591 remains the largest
region on the disk and maintains its Fki beta-gamma-delta
configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. A major flare is possible from Region 9591.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Aug to 31 Aug
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Aug 199 Predicted 29 Aug-31 Aug 205/205/210 90 Day Mean 28 Aug 154
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Aug 014/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Aug 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Aug-31 Aug 010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Aug to 31 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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