Viewing archive of Wednesday, 1 August 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Aug 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Aug 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 9561 (S12E37) produced isolated B- and C-class subflares. This moderate-sized, simply-structured sunspot group remained the most active of the visible regions, but showed no significant changes during the period. No significant changes were observed in the remaining regions. New Regions 9564 (N14W40), 9565 (N04E22), and 9566 N17E63) were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to (briefly) active levels in response to coronal hole effects, which gradually decreased during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on the first day. Activity is expected to increase to mostly active levels during the final two days of the period following yesterday's filament disappearances.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Aug to 04 Aug
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Aug 120
  Predicted   02 Aug-04 Aug  120/125/130
  90 Day Mean        01 Aug 149
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jul  020/023
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Aug  014/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug  008/015-015/015-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Aug to 04 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%30%40%
Minor storm10%15%20%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%35%45%
Minor storm10%20%25%
Major-severe storm02%11%11%

All times in UTC

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