Viewing archive of Sunday, 26 August 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Aug 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 238 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Aug 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate. The largest event was an optically uncorrelated M1 observed at 26/1306 UTC. Region 9591 (S19E18) continued to produce C-class flares during the period. This region maintains its large area (740 millionths) and a beta-gamma-delta Fki configuration. New Region 9597 (N17E48) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Region 9591 is capable of M-class events with potential to produce a major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been predominately quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be active to minor storm conditions on 27 and 28 August as a result of the X5 event from 25 August. Major storm conditions are possible at high latitudes. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 29 August.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Aug to 29 Aug
Class M75%75%75%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Aug 190
  Predicted   27 Aug-29 Aug  195/200/200
  90 Day Mean        26 Aug 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Aug  010/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Aug  015/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Aug-29 Aug  035/035-030/030-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Aug to 29 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%35%25%
Minor storm30%20%05%
Major-severe storm20%10%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active45%40%30%
Minor storm35%25%10%
Major-severe storm20%15%05%

All times in UTC

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