Viewing archive of Friday, 10 August 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Aug 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 9562 (N05W82) produced
a C8/Sf event at 10/0136 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep.
A new region was numbered today as Region 9575 (S03E04). The LASCO
images from yesterday observed a partial halo coronal mass ejection.
The possible cause was a North-South filament channel eruption
observed on EIT images at 10/0936 UTC close to central meridian.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Isolated M-class events are possible from several
regions on the disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. A greater than 10 MeV
proton event began at 10/1020 UTC with a peak flux observed at
10/1635 UTC of 17 pfu. Protons remain enhanced at this time. The
actual source of the event is not currently known as several
possibilities exists.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 11 August. Disturbed
conditions are expected on 12th and 13th of August due to a high
speed coronal hole flow with minor to major storm conditions
possible as a result of the CME on 09 August. The greater than 10
MeV protons should remain enhanced through the period with a chance
of exceeding threshold on 12 August due to the CME passage.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Aug to 13 Aug
| Class M | 50% | 40% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Aug 160 Predicted 11 Aug-13 Aug 155/150/145 90 Day Mean 10 Aug 150
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug 008/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Aug 010/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug 010/010-040/040-030/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug to 13 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 40% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 20% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 45% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 35% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 20% | 15% |
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