Viewing archive of Thursday, 2 August 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Aug 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 214 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Aug 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity increased, but remained at low levels.
Region 9563 (N25E33) grew at a rapid pace and produced occasional
C-class subflares, including a C4/Sf at 02/1613 UTC associated with
a Type II radio sweep. Minor growth occurred in Regions 9557
(S20W15), 9564 (N14W54), and 9566 (N16E50), each of which produced
isolated subflares. Region 9566 also produced a C2/Sf flare at
02/1238 UTC associated with a Type II radio sweep. Gradual decay was
noted in Region 9561 (S13E24), which produced an isolated C-class
subflare early in the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar actrivity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 9563 could produce an isolated
M-class flare, especially if its present rate of growth continues.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
forecast to increase to unsettled to minor storm levels during 03 -
04 August due to an expected CME passage associated with filament
disappearances on 31 July. Activity is expected to decline to
unsettled levels on 05 August.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Aug to 05 Aug
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Aug 121 Predicted 03 Aug-05 Aug 125/130/130 90 Day Mean 02 Aug 149
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Aug 010/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Aug 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug 020/020-015/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Aug to 05 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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