Viewing archive of Thursday, 2 August 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Aug 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 214 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Aug 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity increased, but remained at low levels. Region 9563 (N25E33) grew at a rapid pace and produced occasional C-class subflares, including a C4/Sf at 02/1613 UTC associated with a Type II radio sweep. Minor growth occurred in Regions 9557 (S20W15), 9564 (N14W54), and 9566 (N16E50), each of which produced isolated subflares. Region 9566 also produced a C2/Sf flare at 02/1238 UTC associated with a Type II radio sweep. Gradual decay was noted in Region 9561 (S13E24), which produced an isolated C-class subflare early in the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar actrivity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 9563 could produce an isolated M-class flare, especially if its present rate of growth continues.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is forecast to increase to unsettled to minor storm levels during 03 - 04 August due to an expected CME passage associated with filament disappearances on 31 July. Activity is expected to decline to unsettled levels on 05 August.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Aug to 05 Aug
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Aug 121
  Predicted   03 Aug-05 Aug  125/130/130
  90 Day Mean        02 Aug 149
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Aug  010/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Aug  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug  020/020-015/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Aug to 05 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%25%
Minor storm20%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active45%35%30%
Minor storm25%20%15%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%

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